After exhaustively analyzing the 67 ATP finals played in 2018 (from Brisbane to the Masters Cup) I found some remarkable data:
Over 80% of the points were finished under 6 shots, which guide us to think about the great impact of serve, return and first strokes in today’s tennis beyond the surface.
- 1-3 shots (58.58%)
- 3-6 shots (21.65%)
- 7-9 shots (10.42%)
- >10 shots (9.36%)
* Clay statistics are similar: 53.08% / 23.15% / 12.91% / 10.86%
Unforced Errors vs Winners
It’s been always said that a tennis match is won by the one who fails the least but let’s add numbers to this topic:
50 out of 65 finals (76.92%), in Lyon and Halle both opponents tied in this statistic, were won by the player who made less Unforced Errors while only 53.85% of them were taken by the one who got more Winners.
Bingo! Seek victory without risking too much.
51.21% of the strokes were forehands and 48.79% backhands.
56.92% of the matches were won by the player who hit more forehands, a slight edge that shows the increasing relevance of powerful backhands.
- Crosscourt (45,72%)
- Down middle (26,14%)
- Down the line (10,36%)
- Inside out-in (17,78%)
Not much to say about this… find the right moment to play down the line 😉
Net game has significantly decreased in the last decades and last year’s finals reflected a huge difference between rally points played (34116) and net points (2086, only a 5.7% of the total).
But there is a relevant fact that points out the importance of the net game: 69.52% of those matches were won by the player with best average in volley.
– Most Winners: 53 (Cilic in Queen’s)
– Less Unforced Errors: 5 (Medvedev in Winston Salem & Johnson in Newport)
– Most Net Points won: 49 (Ramanathan in Newport)
– 75.59% of the points played in Stuttgart‘s final (Federer vs Raonic) finished under 3 shots. That’s quick!
– Nadal won 66 out of 75 volleys, an absolutely insane 87.69% overwhelming his greatest competitors: Federer 73.30%, Djokovic 64.61%